An interesting situation tonight. The air mass over southern Plains has substantial CAPE but with a very large CAP. However, very intense low-level warm advection will occur over eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri during the night, probably breaking the CAP considerably to the south of where the model predicts. Thus, it appears that thunderstorms will affect regions well south of where the NAM model forecasts precipitation overnight (top graphic). The new SPC outlook (bottom graphic) is better in line with the current meteorology, but perhaps a bit conservative. Currently there is an obviously severe thunderstorm, probably with large hail, just to the east of Salina Kansas and a new storm is forming near Topeka. A very interesting night on tap weatherwise!
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