This morning's sounding at TUS continues very moist with PW at 1.81 inches - the Phoenix sounding (above) is similar, but with over 2 inches of PW. It is interesting that the southern Arizona soundings have more PW than do the morning GPS data indicate for La Paz and Hermosilla. The Tucson 850 mb dewpoint is 17 C - very high for here. The early WRF-GFS forecast sounding for TUS (below, valid at 3 pm MST) appears primed and ready to explode.
However, the model forecasts little in the way of convection between Tucson and Phoenix. I have looked and can only see that the model brings in slightly warmer and drier middle-level air during the afternoon. The vertical wind profile today appears better than yesterday's. So - the key question is what degree of confidence can we place in the model forecast (based on this week to-date, I have to say only a little). It is really hard to look at the situation in Phoenix and not anticipate a big storm event this evening. I have to leave in a bit for a meeting down in Green Valley - I will be carrying my camera.
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