Hurricane Erick is currently west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico (above is 12 UTC IR image this morning, July 7). The current NHC forecast is shown below. The forecast track for Erick takes it through the key area southwest of Baja that results in initiation of significant surges of Gulf of California moisture. Assuming this forecast is anywhere near to being on the mark, we can expect a push of mT air into southwest Arizona by Tuesday morning.
I looked at the early WRF-GFS forecast of PW on the 5.4 km grid and indeed the WRF model captures the anticipated surge. The forecast below is valid at 3 am MST on Tuesday morning. Blue tones indicate forecast PW greater than 2 inches. So, a very significant surge seems to be on the horizon!
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