Yesterday afternoon storm activity was confined to the mountains primarily - above shows lightning CGs for 24-hours ending at 5 am this morning (Monday 15 July). Only 15 of the ALERT stations (~16%) reported rainfall and amounts were generally light. Exceptions were 0.79" at Samaniego Peak and 2.28" at Mt. Lemmon. Storms were essentially over by dusk. Total rainfall here at house for July so far adds to 0.42" - no rainfall here in June.
The 500 mb low over central U.S. continues to move toward the southwest and is located over Oklahoma and north Texas this morning (12 UTC analysis above from NCAR RAL). The morning NAM forecasts the low to move slowly westward today with a secondary vorticity maximum near the New Mexico boot heel by 12 UTC tomorrow morning (below). This western lobe of the system is associated with significant convection overnight in the model forecasts.
The NAM forecasts a significant nocturnal MCS over eastern Cochise County tonight and this results in a large area of forecast heavy rainfall, with a secondary maximum along the Borderlands (above is forecast NAM total rainfall through Wednesday morning). The early WRF-GFS forecast of 48-hour total rain valid at midnight tomorrow night (below) keeps heaviest rains on the mountains of Santa Cruz and eastern Pima Counties. Will be important to compare the models once the 12 UTC runs of the WRF are completed.
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