The 500 mb cyclone is centered over northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this morning (above is 12 UTC analysis from NCAR RAL). Water vapor loops indicate the upper-cyclone is currently moving toward the northwest, while there is a tiny, upper-level anticyclone centered over eastern Arizona. Heavy clouds cover much of the Southwest and northern Mexico this morning - 7:15 am MST visible image shown below.
This morning's Tucson sounding (above is 12 UTC skew-T plot) shows an unstable and moist atmosphere, with unusual northwesterly steering winds and strong easterlies near the surface. The early WRF-GFS forecasts the northwesterly steering winds to continue through most of the afternoon, while the morning NAM forecasts them to become more northerly. Rain chances here along the Rillito would be much increased with more northerly steering winds. The early WRF seems to clear out the clouds rather quickly this morning, so I haven;t looked at its forecasts in detail.
The NAM forecasts the 500 mb cyclone to move slowly southwestward, underneath the Great Basin anticyclone - above forecast is valid at 60-hours or 5 pm MST on Thursday afternoon. The NAM forecast of total rainfall from this morning through 5 pm Friday is shown below. The models forecast a continued wet and stormy week for most of the Southwest!
Edited to add: Rillito now flowing as per USGS current data below.
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