It continues to be an anemic start to the storm season here in Pima County. Yesterday was totally suppressed again, with none of the ALERT network stations recording any rainfall.. Above is TUS radar composite chart from 6:35 pm MST indicating storms in the eastern Arizona and New Mexico mountains and northern Mexico. A large MCS developed (below is IR satellite image from 8 pm) along the Arizona/New Mexico border and moved southward into northern Mexico. Second graphic below is plot of CG lightning detection's for 24-hours ending at 5 am this morning (5 July) - most of southeast Arizona was devoid of any lightning strikes.
Above is IR image from from 11 UTC this morning. Thick debris cloud from the MCS is present over northern Mexico and parts of Arizona. Dalila has some vigorous convection associated with it this morning and TS Erick is located near 15N and 102W. Erick (which formed yesterday) has a much larger cloud system with it than did Dalila and is forecast to move northwestward much closer to the GoC (NHC forecast below). So perhaps Erick will help get thunderstorm activity kicked into a more active mode.
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