Three early morning MCS cloud shields are shown in the 6 am MST IR satellite image above. One in New Mexico is small and weakening, The large MCS over southeastern Arizona is gradually decaying. The MCS in northern Mexico is quite active and moving toward the north-northwest. Composite radar image from TUS at 6 am (below) shows the relative strength of the embedded thunderstorms.
The early run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo captured the large Arizona MCS quite well (radar composite forecast above was valid at 6 am MST). However, the model did not forecast development of the MCS over northern Sonora. So, there's little need to examine the rest of that forecast. I did note that the model keeps PW high through the weekend, and that southeastern Arizona remains active each afternoon and evening. This morning metro Tucson will be affected by outflows from both of the nearby MCSs. The surface plot at 7 am (below from MesoWest, Univ. of Utah) shows that outflow from the decaying MCS to our northeast is currently pushing into eastern parts of Tucson. We will have to watch to see what kind, if any, rainfall the Mexican MCS pushes northward over Pima County.
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