This morning activity continues over southwest Arizona (above is 1230 UTC IR image) and also southern California. Heavy storms yesterday moved across the metro along the I-10 corridor and then on westward. Below is the central and west sector of the ALERT network showing 24-hour rain through 6 am this morning. Across the entire network there were 64 sites with rain (~70 %) coverage with the rainfall occurring mostly in mid-to-late afternoon. Here at house we had only 0.08" inches, as the storm cores stayed to the south. The airport, however, had 0.81" and gusts to 54 mph. There were several reports of wind damage along the I-10 corridor also. Nogales reported 1.51" of rain, along with two ALERT sites with over an inch of precipitation west of the airport. Lightning strikes through 6 am MST this morning are shown in second graphic below.
Conditions remain very wet this morning - PW values from morning soundings are Yuma 60 mm; Phoenix 52 mm; Tucson 47 mm; and El Paso 30 mm. The early WRF GFS forecasts PW to stay at similar values through the day today. Winds aloft are a bit chopped up at Tucson (12 UTC skew-T plot above) from yesterday's storms. Heavy clouds cover much of southern Arizona, with the exception of Cochise County - so heating will be an important factor this afternoon. The early WRF GFS forecasts heaviest storms and rain out to the west again, with strongest activity across the southeast staying over the mountains - below is the total rainfall forecast through midnight tonight. Note that the heavy amounts are over-done west of Phoenix, where the model forecast a significant, sunrise MCS that did not develop.
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