Yesterday was quite suppressed over most of southeast Arizona, with only a few lightning strikes in far southeastern Cochise County (above is 24-h CGs ending at 6 am MST this morning). No stations in the Pima County ALERT network reported rain.
The dry air intrusion has not pushed the moist air mass very far south in Mexico and model forecasts indicate a quick return into southern Arizona. Above is the 12 UTC WRF-NAM forecast of PW valid at 8 pm tomorrow evening, indicating values returning to over 40 mm over the west half of Pima County. The 12 UTC WRF-GFS forecast indicates some storm activity tomorrow afternoon along the Santa Cruz and Pima County Borderlands (forecast below show composite radar echoes at 5 pm MST Tuesday afternoon. So, if the models are more or less correct, the afternoon storm activity will quickly be on the increase this week.
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