There was still quite a bit of activity across eastern Pima County yesterday, as the plot of lightning strikes for 24-hours ending at 6 am MST this morning indicates (above). Across the ALERT network 30 of 88 (34%) reporting sites had rainfall, with some heavy amounts at high elevations and along the eastern edge of the network. There were 9 sites with 1/2" or more rain and 4 sites had over an inch. Here at the house we had thunder and a cool outflow during the afternoon, but only a few spits of rain (Trace).
The morning plot of the 12 UTC TUS sounding (above) indicates perhaps a sliver of CAPE this afternoon at low elevations. There is probably enough lingering moisture for there to be better CAPE and some buildups over the mountains this afternoon. Flow is westerly through the troposphere and PW has decreased to 31 mm - the lowest value in many days. The 12 UTC NAM 500 mb analysis (below) shows that the 500 mb ridge-line has been pushed south into northern Mexico and that it extends westward across the central GoC.
Cooler temperatures are moving over the Southwest from the Pacific trough, so when low-level moisture improves a bit CAPE may develop more easily at lower elevations than it did during the extended period of tropical-like conditions. The Atmo WRF-GFS apparently did not run this morning.
Finally, TS Flossie continues moving westward in the Central Pacific, with the current outlook (above) taking it across Hilo and the north end of the Big Island. Dorian has weakened in the Atlantic and is no longer a TS.
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