Saturday, September 25, 2021

Showers Around Today

View of showers northeast of Catalinas at 7:05 am MST this morning Below is 24 hour rainfall across the ALERT network. Most of precipitation fell after midnight last night. There was 0.02" here at the house - which was first measurable rain since September 5th.

At 500 mb the closed low appears to be centered somewhere south of San Diego at 12 UTC (above - from Univ. of Wyoming).

GEFS plumes from 06 UTC for precipitation at the airport are fairly aggressive late this afternoon through tomorrow. Average forecast by the ensemble is around 0.30", with the operational GFS (blue) quite a bit wetter. Morning sounding plot (below - also from Univ. of Wyoming) is fairly wet, but is also dry below 700 mb. The boundary layer will probably not heat and mix-out to 700 mb, so storms this afternoon will likely be high-based.

Forecasts here from 09 UTC WRF-RR: above shows composite radar forecast for 4:00 pm MST this afternoon and above shows forecast rainfall through midnight tonight. Amounts over our area are quite light - note difference at airport with WRF forecasting no rain in contrast to the GEFS shown above.

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