Bit of color at 6:06 am MST this morning. I didn't blog the last couple of days and need to report our first September rain here at house - 0.02" during the late evening of the 3rd.
There were some isolated CG flashes around borders of eastern Pima County yesterday, as per plot of detected CGs from Atmo and Vaisala (below) for 24 hours ending at about 1130 pm last evening.
The 500 mb analysis this morning (above) indicates a weak, inverted trough (IT) across northern Sonora and New Mexico. Forecast (below) from the 06 UTC GFS indicates the IT brushing across southeast Arizona by 06 UTC (11:00 pm) this evening
The morning sounding (above) has enough CAPE to not be affected by the weak inversion at 500 mb. Steering winds are northeasterly and relatively strong. Heavy storms are forecast to move across eastern Pima County later today. Forecast of composite radar (below from 06 UTC WRF-GFS) is valid at 7:30 pm this evening. All the WRF runs I looked at have brought storms across our area later today - with only difference being in the timing - some runs fire up storms several hours earlier, during mid to late afternoon.
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