Friday, September 24, 2021

Showers Nearby This Morning

Late start this morning. Morning buildups and showers north and northwest of the Catalinas this morning. There was a very long-lived, partial rainbow with the showers, but I did not have my camera when I was out walking.

Very limited rainfall across the ALERT network for 24 hours ending at 9:00 am MST this morning (below). Here at house we had very light shower a bit before noon yesterday that produced a Trace.

Quite a bit of early morning CG flashes (second below) out to the west of here - looks like one detection with the showers near the Catalinas.

The morning 300 mb analysis (above) shows a very sharp trough across northwestern Arizona, and that will form a closed low later today off of northern Baja. This feature will affect our area when it moves eastward over the weekend.

The morning sounding from TUS/TWC below has just a sliver of mid-level CAPE with different wind profiles in the upper versus lower halves of the troposphere. Not a very promising sounding, although more CAPE is present to the west, as per thunderstorm CG activity shown above. 

The 12 UTC run of WRF-RR keeps most storm activity to west through midnight tonight - that model's forecast for rainfall through midnight tonight is shown at the bottom.

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