Lightning flash about 2:30 am MST this early morning captured on the Atmo movie. Showers and thunderstorms moved across the northern portions of the metro area after midnight last night.
Rain amounts from the ALERT network for 24 hours ending at 5:03 am. Yesterday's WRF was reasonably good in keeping the storms to the north. The airport reported 0.01", DM had a Trace, but we had 0.24" and Atmo reported 0.22". The plot of detected CG flashes (below from Atmo and Vaisala) shows considerable ongoing storm activity at 1203 UTC (5:03 am) - most recent flashes are pink to white.
This morning the 500 mb trough continues its slow eastward movement and is located a bit west of Tucson. The 1430 UTC plot of PW above shows lingering values over an inch across most of southern Arizona. The GFS 500mb forecast below indicates the trough just to the east of here by 00 UTC this evening. Key forecast question is whether afternoon storms will develop. The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast second below (precipitation through midnight tonight) indicates some activity just brushing the edges of eastern Pima County. I'd be surprised if we had thunderstorms again here at house.
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