Pink cirrus and dark lower clouds about 5:15 am this morning. Very warm start to the day - when I returned from my morning walk at 6:30 am MST it was 82 F here. The plot of detected CG flashes (below from Atmo and Vaisala - for 24-hours ending at 0803 UTC) shows that thunderstorms returned to southeastern Arizona yesterday - perhaps a flash or two just inside Pima County.
This morning's sounding remains unimpressive, as per past several days. There are, however, some relatively strong east winds from 300 to 700 mb. If storms develop off to the east this afternoon, the steering flow will try to move them our way.
The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast run at Atmo indicates that this is what will happen, with storms moving west over much of eastern Pima County. Forecast of composite radar echoes (above) is valid at 7:30 pm this evening. The storms produce strong outflow winds and some light rainfall - as per two forecasts below from same WRF-RR run.
At bottom is an outlook graphic for today from the NWS Forecast office.
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