View above, with contrail streak, from a bit before 6:00 am MST. Thunderstorms mostly avoided Pima County yesterday, as did rainfall - plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 0803 UTC this early morning (below, from Atmo and Vaisala).
The 500 mb plot is truly a mess this morning - the 250 mb chart provides a better depiction of current features. Three anticyclone centers of circulation extend from Arkansas to northwestern Sonora. An inverted trough in the easterlies is over the southern end of the GoC.
The morning sounding at TWC/TUS continues to be unimpressive - limited moisture, no CAPE and a chopped up wind profile. The 14 UTC plot of total precipitable water (below) shows higher moisture content lurking just south of 30 degrees north - need a feature to kick these values up into Arizona. Remnants of Bonnie are around 140 degrees west, while intensifying Hurricane Darby (now a high-end Category 3 storm) is just west of 120 degrees.
The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast manages, somehow, to develop isolated nighttime storms over parts of eastern Pima County - forecast above valid at 10:00 pm tonight.
Current heat warning for today. from the NWS Forecast Office, is shown below.
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