Nice view of Catalinas and heavy clouds just before sunrise this morning.
Post is late today because I had a morning appointment over on the east side of the city.
Plot of detected CG flashes (below - from Atmo and Vaisala for 24-hours ending at 0133 MST this morning) shows that yesterday was another with virtually no thunderstorm activity within Pima County.
This morning's sounding (12 UTC above) again indicates little CAPE and light variable winds - how long can this go on? Sounding is most conducive to another round of strong outflows, along with light showers. Yesterday the airport reported max gusts to 46 mph from the southeast around 7:30. The outflow did bring a nice temperature drop of almost 20 F, which was quite welcome.
Forecasts here from the 12 UTC WRF-RR runs: above composite radar echoes at 6:30 pm today, and below total rainfall through midnight. The line of echoes moving through the metro area will likely bring strong gusts from the east to southeast - how strong? I can't really say for sure, but sounding indicates potential for 45 to 55 mph winds.
The model forecast (below) also indicates light precipitation amounts across much of eastern Pima County through midnight.
Thus, the WRF forecast is much different than the NWS Forecast office outlook (second below) issued at 8:00 am this morning, which warns of possible heavy rains and flooding across southeast Arizona. Once again, time will tell.
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