Colorful views this morning around 5:20 am MST: above looking toward the Catalinas and bottom looking toward the Rincons.
Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 8:03 UTC this morning (from Atmo and Vaisala) shows that there was almost no thunderstorm activity in Pima County yesterday - just about exactly as predicted by yesterday's WRF run (see previous post).
Yesterday was very unusual for second half of July with NO ALERT sites reporting rainfall - below for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning. It was yet another dry day here at the house.
The morning 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) shows that the anticyclone is centered about over the White Mountains this morning. The 12 UTC TWC/TUS sounding (below) remains a chopped up mess: limited lower-level moisture; some CAPE above 600 mb; mostly light and variable winds.
However, there was large MCS over the GoC this morning; above IR satellite image from 1151 UTC. Hopefully this system will push higher, low-level moisture northward into southern Arizona today. Meanwhile, this morning's 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast for precipitation through midnight tonight tonight (below) indicates little shower and thunderstorm activity for the entire state today. So it continues to go.
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