Fourth Saturday

Another vivid sunrise over the Rincons this morning; the fourth Saturday of July.

There were some thunderstorms scattered around the metro area yesterday afternoon and evening - rainfall reports above from MesoWest for 24-hours ending at 6:30 am MST this morning. TUS and DM both reported thunderstorms with a Trace - here at house we had thunder and a brief, moderate shower that left 0.16" in the gauge. Plot (below) of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) shows that storms were still active this morning from west to north of our area.

Anticyclone (above) at 250 mb has shifted eastward, as forecast by the models, and is now centered somewhere between Tucson and Albuquerque. The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (below) is not very impressive with a deep layer of relatively dry air. If BL mixes out to 600 mb, there is just a sliver of CAPE left. The strong winds at low-levels are also a dilemma, since they may bring in even drier air by afternoon.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF above indicate afternoon activity today through Monday. Although I am not very optimistic for storms again here, the 12 UTC WRF-HRRR (below) indicates heavy storms and rain through midnight. Another interesting situation to watch.