Some morning color over the city this morning at 5:51 am MST.

Thunderstorms were fairly isolated over all of southern Arizona yesterday. Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 01:03 am this morning (above, from Atmo and Vaisala) seems to indicate only a storm or two in eastern Pima County.

ALERT plots for 24-hours ending at 6:00 am this morning (above and below) show the scattered nature of yesterday's rains. I see only 4 reports over half an inch. Here at house I reported 0.14" during very early morning hours yesterday - during the day there was only an additional trace during a sprinkle or two.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for the airport (above) show that the operational GFS (blue) is a wet outlier, with quite heavy rains indicated for the airport this evening, as well as for rest of week. The 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS (below, showing rainfall forecast through midnight tonight) is more conservative for the airport, but does forecast a band of heavy precipitation across Pima County to our west.

The morning forecast graphic from the NWS Forecast Office - second below - indicates highest chances for rainfall today extending from north of the Catalinas south across the metro area and Santa Cruz County. Should be another interesting weather day.