There were a few clouds hanging over the Catlinas this morning. After a wet start to July we've now had seven dry days. Plot below of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) through 0103 MST last night shows Arizona completely devoid of storms yesterday - a rare occurrence for this time of year..
Surface dewpoints have dropped into 30s and 40s last couple of days - as per the morning surface plot above - quite dismal.
The 500 mb level (above) is almost devoid of significant features across the southern parts of country and there is little in the way of height gradients. The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (below) is also a mess - PW less than inch, no CAPE, and light and variable winds through the troposphere. It can only get better this weekend.
Analysis TPW (above for 13 UTC) shows high values extending over half way up the GoC, and perhaps an MCS will move over the GoC tonight and help push the high moisture values northward. Hurricane Bonnie is at 120 degrees west, moving westward.
Meanwhile, the 12 UTC WRF-RR precipitation forecast through midnight (from Atmo below) indicates more of the same - a very dry day today for Pima County.
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