In an earlier post I compared the ECMWF and GFS 500 mb forecasts valid at 6-days for 12 UTC this morning. Graphic above shows the ECMWF forecast and graphic below is the 500 mb analysis for 12 UTC this morning from the NAM. The ECMWF was too deep and too slow, with height errors of as much as 140 m or more along the Arizona/Mexico borderlands. This was an unusually poor performance by the ECMWF.
The graphic below is the 6-day GFS forecast valid at the same time. The GFS forecast was also too deep, but only on the order of 60 to 80 m, and very close on positioning. The open wave character of the pattern was what was observed this morning. This was a situation where the GFS forecast was considerably better at 6-days than was the ECMWF. Unfortunately, the only "weather" with this system over southeastern Arizona has been continued gusty, dry winds.
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