Shown here are the operational member forecasts at 144-hours, for the ECMWF (top) and GFS (bottom), valid at 12 UTC on 29 May 2013. The ECMWF is stronger and further south and the ECMWF trend has been toward increasing moisture with this feature. The GFS ensemble members have several forecasts that are similar to the ECMWF and 3 or 4 members forecast light rainfall over parts of southern Arizona. So, there is at least something to watch as the month draws to an end.
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