Sunday, May 19, 2013

Dry Pattern Continues For Southwest

The large-scale pattern across North America remains very stable and the outlook for precipitation over the Southwest remains bleak. Here at the house the total rainfall for March through May to date is a scant 0.28".
The above graphic shows total 10-day precipitation forecast by the NWS GFS Global model (operational version). The pattern seems remarkably stable to me as per the graphic below, which is the GFS Ensemble spaghetti chart and average heights for 500 mb out at 10-days. Very small spread over North America for this far out - all the spaghetti is over on the other side of the hemisphere. So, the long-term drought continues in this part of the country.

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