The new run of Atmo's WRF-GFS from midnight last night, continues to indicate another moisture starved event through Wednesday morning May 8th. The forecast of composite radar echoes above, valid 10 pm tonight (Sunday May 5th), is as active as it gets in the WRF forecast across Pima County.
The forecast of accumulated precipitation through 5 am tomorrow morning (above) indicates some very light amounts over the far southeast part of the state. The same forecast out through Wednesday morning indicates additional precipitation only in the northern part of Arizona. The forecast sounding at Tucson valid at 3 am tomorrow morning (below) indicates a small amount of elevated CAPE and 21 mm of precipitable water. So, interesting weather likely with buildups, virga, sprinkles, mammatus, some gusty winds, but not much rain on the ground.
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