It is an interesting weather situation today as precipitable water (PW) has slowly increased to values over an inch across much of southern and southwestern Arizona this morning. Above graphic shows the blended PW analysis from CIRA at Colorado State University - time is 12 UTC (5 am MST). Values of PW across all of GoC region and westward over the eastern Pacific are between one and two inches. The 12 UTC sounding from TWC on campus (below) actually exhibits some CAPE this morning.
However, the early run of the WRF-NAM at Atmo forecasts all storm activity to remain well to the east of the Tucson metro area - forecast of composite radar echoes above is valid at 4 pm MST this afternoon. The model forecast sounding for TUS (below for 3 pm) continues to indicate some CAPE available above 400 mb. So it will be interesting to keep an eye out this afternoon, as well as to check on the new morning runs of the WRF model.
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