Back in late May I posted 10-day forecasts from the ECMWF and the GFS operational models - these were valid at 00 UTC on 6 June 2014. The ECMWF forecast is shown above, while a fairly crude, verifying analysis from the Wyoming website is shown below, with the observations plotted.
The ECMWF forecast the general pattern quite well, but heights tended to be a bit too high, especially across the southern third of the country. Note that the center of the 500 mb anticyclone was positioned very well in the ECMWF forecast.
The GFS (below) was considerably off with the flow pattern and tended to have the heights a bit too low. The closed 500 mb low forecast over the Northwest was considerably over-done by the GFS forecast.
So nothing very surprising here except that the global models did fairly well for this transition to summer pattern, even out at 10-days.
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