Somewhat of a miscellany this morning. Sunrise was very hazy with nice orange-to-yellow colors. The Rincons were visible but the Santa Ritas were totally obscured to the south. The reduced visibility seems to be due to both an increase in PW and also smoke drifting southwestward from wildfires off to our far northeast. View above is looking north from campus at 6:30 am MST.
Far to the south TD East-4 appears very robust in satellite images this morning, and I suspect that NHC will shortly upgrade this system to TS Douglas.
Graphic above shows 12 UTC PW blended analysis from CIRA at Colorado State University. Two small blobs of PW greater than 1 inch have sneaked north of the border, while the very deep mT moisture is inching northward up the lower GoC. The morning NWS sounding, taken from their office on campus, indicates just over an inch of PW with some elevated CAPE present above 500 mb. The WRF-NAM forecast of PW (below, on the 5.4 km grid) is from the midnight run and is valid at 6 am MST this morning - excellent agreement with the CIRA analysis north of 25 N.
Finally, above shows the WRF-NAM forecast of PW valid at 11 pm MST on 1 July - next Tuesday night. The model is forecasting a significant surge of low-level moisture up the GoC by that time, with a very strong moisture gradient approaching the border. As I looked at the details of the WRF forecast, I couldn't determine what had triggered this surge. So I looked at the 00 UTC run of the NAM and found that the model was forecasting the tropical system that will trail TS Douglas to be located just southwest of Baja. This feature was forcing the Gulf Surge - will things evolve that way? We'll have to keep a close watch to the south next couple of days.
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