Tropical Storm Douglas is located southwest of the end of Baja, while another storm, Elida, is developing to the east just off of Mexico. The IR satellite image (below) shows both systems this morning (Monday, June 30th) as well as MCS activity along east side of GoC extending about half way up the Gulf.
MIMIC PW analysis this morning (from CIMSS at Univerity of Wisconsin - above) indicates deep, mT air also extends about half way up GoC. The MCS near the far south end of Sonora was most intense around 04 UTC last evening as per image below.
This morning's early WRF-NAM forecasts indicate that the weather situation over southeast Arizona will be quite complicated by Wednesday afternoon - forecast of PW below on 5.4 km grid is valid at 5 pm Wednesday. The forecast indicates moisture converging on eastern Pima County from both the southwest and also from the east. Moisture values still not really high but much better than recently. Note the complicating factor introduced by strong, downslope easterly winds blowing in from New Mexico.
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