Precipitable water values (PW) have been creeping up here in southern Arizona, with values approaching 25 mm. This may lead to some high-elevation convection the next couple of days. Current WRF forecasts keep radar echoes well to north and east of the Tucson area. This is probably due to warming middle-level temperatures offsetting the increase in PW (wrt CAPE). Current PW graphics here are: blended PW from Univ. of Wisconsin CIMMS (above for 09 UTC) and from Colorado State CIRA (below for 13 UTC). Values are quite high over the southern portions of Gulf of California, and so the track of Hurricane Cristina will play a significant role in how far north this mT air might come.
Some of the GFS ensemble members are quite aggressive bringing moisture and precipitation into the Southwest by 144-hours, as per three of the four members shown below (valid time is 00 UTC 17 June). So it will interesting to watch how Cristina tracks as the weekend approaches.
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