First, the trough that has pushed across the Great Basin brought strong enough, west-northwest winds to Arizona and northwestern Mexico to push very deep moisture southward. The above analysis (CIRA blended PW for 12 UTC) this morning indicates that deep, mT air has retreated all the way to the south end of the GoC. Across most of Arizona PW values are hoovering around 3/4 of an inch. The trough has also brought very warm temperatures to middle-levels over all of the Southwest, where current 500 mb temperatures range from -2C to -4C - ugh.
Looking to the south, the NHC has identified two areas of possible storm development on their 5 am outlook this morning (Saturday, June 28th) - one high probability area and the other trailing area currently a lower risk. The global models have been forecasting development of a storm from the leading area for a number of days now. However, the global model forecasts for this new tropical system remain scattered, i.e., all over the place. The ECMWF (below at 144-hours valid 00 UTC on 4 July) forecasts a weak system that is located far to the west of the south end of Baja,
The NWS GFS ensembles currently are forecasting about any answer to how this system will evolve that any one could ask for. The operational member forecast (above valid same time as the ECMWF) is very similar to the European model's operational forecast. However, some of the GFS ensemble members (as per the forecast below for 00 UTC July 4) forecast a hurricane to develop and move close enough to the southern half of Baja to trigger a strong Gulf Surge event, one that would likely bring much increased low-level moisture into Arizona. We will just have to watch how the situation evolves early next week to get a feel for what weather we'll experience over the coming holiday weekend.
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