Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Looking Ahead - Waiting For Rain


Currently winds in the middle and upper troposphere are predominantly westerly, with the subtropical easterlies displaced far to the south. The 1200 UTC analyses and data plots from University of Wyoming upper-air page are shown above and below for 250 and 500 mb.



However, the ECMWF forecasts shift the easterlies rapidly northward beginning late week. By 168 hours - 12 UTC on 1 July - the 500 mb subtropical anticyclone (above) has shifted northward in the forecasts and its axis is forecast to be as far north as near the Four Corners. The 850 (top below) and 700 mb (bottom) forecasts valid at the same time indicate low-level moisture heading northward as a tropical storm approaches the south end of Baja. I can almost smell the air after the first thunderstorm here.



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