Sunday, August 16, 2020

Chance For Showers This Evening

Morning skies with middle-level clouds to the northeast.

Another day with numerous CG flashes along Borderlands and also to our east, as per detected flashes above (from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am MST this morning.

ALERT rainfall obs (below, also ending at 8:00 am) show that metro area was totally out of the action again. There were three reports of more than half an inch to our east and south. 

The storms to the southeast produced a gust front that moved across much of our area during the late afternoon. Pioneer Airfield, west of Ft. Huachuca, reported a severe wind gust to 69 mph. Other sites in the area were generally 35 to 45 mph, but Mt. Hopkins hit 78 mph in another severe thunderstorm, and TUS gusted to 46 mph.

The 500 mb chart, above for 12 UTC, shows the large anticyclone continuing to shift northward into the Great Basin. There is a distinct inverted trough across the southeast corner of New Mexico - this feature may brush westward along the Borderlands tonight. 

Sounding below for TWC indicates moderate CAPE above 600 mb, where steering winds are northeasterly. Considerable lifting again required to get parcels up to the LFC - yesterday's nice gust front apparently was not quite enough.

 CAPE above 600 mb

Composite radar forecasts here are from the 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo. Panel above is valid at 3:00 pm this afternoon, while panel below is valid at 8:00 pm.

Strongest winds are forecast to occur with the bow of intense echoes to our west and northwest. Precipitation through midnight (from same run) is forecast to be spotty and light, yet again.

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