Sunday, August 02, 2020

Dry Here Yesterday

Another morning view from Atmo similar to past several days. At bottom is view of Miami as TS Isaias passes by off shore.

Storms in southeast Arizona stayed far from Tucson, with heaviest activity over Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties - as per high density of detected CG flashes (above from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24-hours ending at 2:00 am MST early this morning.

Rain amounts below (from MesoWest for 24-hours ending at 7:30 am) show highest amounts around southern Huachuca Mountains - Art Douglas reported 1.40" at his place in Ash Canyon. 

Another TWC 12 UTC sounding (above) this morning that has large potential CAPE, but that will need a strong outflow to force storms, given the shallow afternoon BLs we've been experiencing. Note that there are several old, elevated layers that are well-mixed in temperature, but only one shallow layer near 700 mb well-mixed in moisture. Strange times. The intense, elevated inversion of the past several days has vanished, which is good.

The forecast 500 mb chart (above from 06 UTC GFS and valid at 5:00 pm this afternoon) indicates split centers in the 500 mb anticyclone, with a weak trough line separating the two and extending from southern Nevada to our area. The GEFS plumes (below) continue dry through the week at the airport - but again the operational GFS (blue) is a wet outlier - if anyone knows what's gone awry in the operational GFS, please let me know.

As for local storm chances - the nighttime and early am WRF forecasts mostly indicate storms again staying east to south of our area, but with one version forecasting some evening storms over eastern Pima County. Rain in my gauge tomorrow morning - not likely.

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