Thursday, August 13, 2020

Little Change Through Weekend

View of Catalinas a bit before sunrise this early morning.

There were isolated thunderstorms around yesterday afternoon (plot of detected CG flashes above for 24-hours ending at 11:00 pm MST last night - from Atmo and Vaisala), but mostly north to east to south to southwest of the metro area. Has been three weeks now since there was rain in the gauge here.

Rainfall observations for 24-hours ending at 6:00 am this morning - above from ALERT and below from MesoWest. Two sites had just over half an inch - one in Catalinas and the other down near Sonoita. Arivaca, just off the southwest edge of the plots, also had over half an inch - 0.63".The metro area was out of luck again yesterday.

Current morning forecast from NWS for the airport (above and below) is very grim - what an ugly month this has been so far.

Morning sounding (above from SPC) remains unexciting with sliver of CAPE and light west-southwesterly steering winds. The 500 mb anticyclone is currently centered over southeastern New Mexico. Model forecasts shift it northeastward to Utah by Monday - GFS forecast below from 06 UTC is valid at 5:00 am next Monday. Note that this shift does result in strong easterly winds across southern Arizona, which would be a great improvement in steering winds.

Finally, a forecast from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS run below - valid at 5:00 pm this afternoon, indicates storms again mostly avoiding the main metro area.

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