Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Following Genevieve

Webcam views here from the GoC - above strong south winds at Puerto Penasco, and below, dreary skies at Cabo san Lucas as Genevieve moves nearer.

Thunderstorm activity over Arizona yesterday afternoon and evening was focused mostly along the Mogollon Rim and the northwest (plot above of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 1:00 am MST this morning - from Atmo and Vaisala). It was very suppressed across southern Arizona - has now been 27 days since we had measurable rain here at the house.

Hurricane Genevieve is located south of the end of Baja and is moving northwest - above in TPW image for 8:00 am; below in satellite image from same time; and second below in current NHC forecast of her track.

At 500 mb the large anticyclone over the Southwest is slowly shifting toward northeastern Arizona, with strong easterly winds continuing over our area. The morning sounding (below from Univ. of Wyoming) indicates PW just over an inch, but with fairly dry lower levels. The layer from 850 to 600 mb has a fair amount of CAPE, and storms may try to come from the mountains toward the metro area late tonight and early tomorrow.

The forecast below (from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo last night) is valid at midnight tomorrow night. If it were to verify, we'd have cool outflow winds across the City with thunderstorms and showers around. Here's hoping for something like this to happen, as moisture increases from the south to west and hopefully pushes the dry air back toward New Mexico.

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