Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Laura/More Of Same Here

Hurricane Laura (above) over the GoM is currently a Category 3 storm with winds over 110 mph as it heads toward a landfall near Lake Charles, Louisiana. The NHC forecasts (track shown below) that Laura could be a Cat 4 storm at landfall (winds over 130 mph).

Back here in southeastern Arizona the large-scale pattern continues with little change. Skies are very dirty, as per view south from Kitt Peak (above). We have been plagued by a Dog Day summer this year.

Yesterday remained very suppressed over all of southeastern Arizona, from Phoenix area all the way to the southern and eastern borders of the state. Below shows detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 1:00 am MST this morning (from Atmo and Vaisala). The no activity zone extends into southwestern New Mexico and a very large portion of northwestern Mexico. Seems to be about as bad as it can get.

At 500 mb (above at 12 UTC this morning) a huge anticyclone covers most of the country. The western lobe of the high is centered over northeastern Arizona, and windas are light easterly across southern half of state.

The 12 UTC sounding from TWC (below), has light winds and just a sliver of CAPE if the BL were to mix out to 600 mb (which is not likely). However, there may be enough heating and mixing over the mountains to get some slow moving storms going - if this were to happen the storms could produce locally heavy rains.

However, the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast (above, for precipitation through midnight tonight) indicates no activity except along the borderlands of southwestern Pima County.

Forecast below is for total precipitation through 6:00 am on September 1st - perhaps a sprinkle shower or two here at house before this miserable month ends.

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