Wednesday, August 12, 2020

Showers Around Area Yesterday

Few middle clouds drifting over the Catalinas this morning. Down at bottom - big crowds already lined up at west entrance to Yellowstone NP, and also watching Old Faithful do its thing.

There were light showers around the metro area yesterday afternoon/evening but thunderstorms stayed over the Rincons and out to west over central Pima County. Rainfall amounts observed were scattered around and mostly light - two plots below from ALERT and MesoWest for 24-hours ending around 7:00 am MST this morning. There was 0.67" at a site on Redington Pass. Not even a sprinkle here at house.

The 500 mb analysis this morning (above from Univ. of Wyoming) continues to be a real mess, with light winds our area and anticyclone centered off to our east somewhere near Silver City, New Mexico. Perhaps there is a very weak, inverted trough just to our west. (After quite a long time heights still remain too low at Phoenix and Chihuahua, Mexico.)

The morning sounding from TWC is below. The dry low levels result in a sounding with no CAPE - however soundings at Yuma and Empalme Mexico do have CAPE present, so we're on the edge again of best area for storms.

The 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo manages to get storms going, somehow, over parts of the metro area by 7:00 pm this evening (above). Other WRF runs keep activity off to our east and south.

Finally, the east Pacific is becoming very active - morning outlook below is from NHC. Elida is weakening, but several areas have high potential for developing storms. The orange area off southern Mexico may generate a storm that heads right toward southern Baja by the weekend. This could be the system that helps bring us out of our extended period of suppressed weather!

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