Above and down at bottom - two views of our very dirty air this morning. Still only 0.13 inches of rain this August - if the dryness continues, this will easily be the driest August here since I started my records in 1999.
Yesterday morning's sounding (see previous post) looked quite favorable for storms, as per NWS afternoon and evening outlook above. However, PW plummeted during the day, going from 1.51" down to 0.91" at 00Z (see below).
The 00 UTC TWC sounding above was really pathetic, with no chances for deep convection. The plot of detected CG flashes (below, for 24-hours ending at 1:00 am MST this morning - from Atmo and Vaisala) shows only a couple of borderland storms over all of southern and southwest Arizona.
The MesoWest plot of 24-precipitation ending at 7:00 am this morning (second below) shows all goose eggs. The WRF-GFS forecasts yesterday were very good, as they kept our area suppressed and rain free.
This morning's TWC sounding (above) continues pathetic with PW less than an inch and no CAPE; looks like yet another hot and dry day here. The GFS forecast below for 500 mb is valid at 1200 UTC on Thursday morning. Little change over the Southwest through the week, but tropical storm Laura is forecast to plow into Louisiana by Wednesday.
The 1416 visible satellite image above shows TS Marco just off the southeast Louisiana coast (no convection except off to northeast of center). However, Laura appears more impressive and is south of central Cuba moving west-northwestward. Current NHC forecast below indicates that Laura will become a hurricane once it moves past Cuba into the GoM.
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