Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Increased Storm Activity Yesterday

Dirty, polluted skies continue over Tucson area again this morning - as per above.

Most of weather interest next couple of days will focus on hurricane Laura, as she moves toward US across the Gulf of Mexico (GoM).

Although the system northwest of Cuba appears a bit disorganized (visible image above from 8:00 am MST this morning), the NHC has declared it to be a minimal hurricane this morning - Laura. Laura is forecast to intensify, becoming a Cat. 3 storm, before making landfall east of Houston early Thursday morning - as per current NHC forecast below.

Here in Arizona, thunderstorms increased considerably over the southwest portion of the state yesterday; however, most of eastern Pima, Santa Cruz, and Cochise Counties remained suppressed, except for a late night storm over the Rincons. Plot of detected CG flashes above for 24-hours ending at 01:30 am this morning (from Atmo and Vaisala).

The 500 mb anticyclone appears to be centered between Denver and Albuquer this morning (above), with a ridge-line extending southwestward to the northern GoC. An inverted trough crosses central Mexico, reaching northward to western Oklahoma. Unfortunately, models predict this feature to remain nearly stationary during the next two days and to gradually weaken.

The morning sounding (above) from TWC remains CAPE-less, with a very chopped up vertical wind profile. So, another day with little chance for storms over the metro area - forecast below from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS is for total rainfall through midnight tonight. Looks like more of the same here.

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