Monday, August 17, 2020

Hot And Mostly Dry Week Ahead

Skies are smokey toward the east this morning, but I'm not sure exactly where the source is. Yesterday storms were active over the Catalinas at 3:00 pm MST. Really looked like we had a chance for rain here at house, but ended up with only a sprinkle shower and a Trace in the evening.

Plot of detected CGs (above from Atmo and Vaisala for 24-hours ending at 11:30 pm. Note the Tucson metro donut hole, with heavy activity over and north of the Catalinas. Composite radar (below at about 4:30) was most impressive, and there were several warnings in effect. There were four reports of thunderstorms with severe wind gusts in Arizona yesterday - two in the northwest and two down here in the southeast.

Rain amounts were impressive at spots, especially on north side of Catalinas (second below shows ALERT reports for the 24-hours ending at 6:00 am this morning) with four sites exceeding an inch.

This morning the 500 mb anticyclone (above) has shifted to southwest Utah and easterly wind speeds have increased across southern Arizona. Dry low-levels continue to result in minimal CAPE here at TWC (below), but there is certainly an impressive layer of easterly steering winds. Forecast models, however, indicate little storm activity for eastern Pima County today - one morning run does indicate a bit of storm activity in the metro area around midnight. 

To our far south, Hurricane Genevieve developed rapidly during the night off the coast of southwest Mexico. Genevieve is expected to become a major hurricane and track toward the south end of Baja - see current NHC forecast at bottom. Perhaps Genevieve will bring us an influx of very much needed low-level moisture!

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