Cool Breezy Weekend

Clear skies this morning here in Tucson. But down at bottom the image of train passing through Flagstaff shows that it's snowing up there - note the ubiquitous J. B. Hunt Intermodal cars. Last image is of new snow cover in Yosemite NP.

The national weather news the next several days will focus on the huge snowstorm forecast for the Colorado Front Range, where amounts are being predicted in feet, not inches!

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport are shown above. Note that all ensemble members forecast measurable precipitation at the airport from tomorrow through late Saturday afternoon. However, the 06 UTC WRF-GFS (below) forecasts only some light precipitation on the mountains through 11 am MST on Sunday. The WRF has been routinely better than the GFS/GEFS during the winter, and we'll see if it is continuing to best the NWS models.

The GEFS temperature plumes above indicate a cool weekend, but with warmer conditions during the coming week. The WRF-GFS forecasts of winds (below) show gusty winds over southeast Arizona this afternoon. Then by Sunday (second below) the strong winds have intensified and shifted eastward over New Mexico and west Texas.