Tuesday, June 07, 2011

Art Douglas' Summer Outlook

Art Douglas has provided his summer outlook for me to post here. Many thanks Art. His outlook is for individual state climate zones, and so is much more detailed than the CPC (see below) outlooks. His summer outlook differs substantially from CPC's (again - see below) and indicates a wet summer from southern Arizona westward across the southern Plains. Art's outlook also has much of the northwest U.S. having a very dry summer. Regardless, an interesting comparison between the outlooks. Art's forecast is based on an analog procedure and his analog years are indicated on the figures above. His brief description of this process is below.
The summer 2011 forecast is based on a statistical cluster analysis of 15 key climate variables present in May 2011. This analog program determines the observed relationship between these 15 climate indices over the past 61 years and the statistical output selects a group of years that show the strongest relationship with 2011. Inputs for the forecast include Pacific and Atlantic SSTs, 700mb height anomalies and key ENSO indices. This best fit match of years to 2011 is composited to show the evolution of this summer's climate from the initial May state.

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