Thursday, June 30, 2011

Quick Outlook

The PW has decreased markedly to the wesst of Tucson, as the 500 mb short wave moves across the Great Basin, with its tail crossing Arizona. The WRF model forecasts the only convection in Arizona today to occur in Cochise County. Which seems quite reasonable. The 0.11" of an inch of rain in the yard here this morning will vanish almost in a snap-of-the-fingers, as the sun heats things up. Earlier posts for the next few days remain essentially on track - models differ in degree to which inverted trough (now associated with Arlene, which is now inland - see above) will push deep moisture into southern Arizona. The operational GFS now seems most agressive, but also appears to be an outlier. The WRF brings the moisture back quickly, enough so for thunderstorms again by Saturday. Basically, after a brief drying, an interesting Holiday weekend on tap.

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