Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Longer Term Weather Situation

The tropical wave that has just moved across Yucatan is very moist and quite distinct (see 700 mb NAM analysis above and a morning visible satellite image below). I mentioned this wave in the post of June 24th as a possible player in the Holiday weekend's weather, and that still appears to be a distinct possibility. There is a low now spinning in the Bay of Campeche, and the short term model forecasts indicate that this feature may be a tropical storm before it moves ashore over eastern Mexico.The models all move this wave mainly to the west across Mexico, although the ECMWF appears to shear a piece of the wave nothward east of the Continental Divide.

The 84-hour, NAM 700 mb forecast valid at 0000 UTC on Saturday July 2nd is shown above. At that time the wave is forecast to still be quite robust and approaching the GoC. Some of the models generate a new tropical storm with the wave, well south of the GoC. Regardless, this wave moving into and across the GoC, with associated thunderstorm complexes, should generate a substantial surge of GoC low-level moisture into southern Arizona, probably on Saturday. This would lead to excellent chances for storms on Sunday and the Fourth of July across southern Arizona. So, many interesting weather features to watch as the weekend approaches.

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