Thursday, June 02, 2011

Check On The 168-h Forecasts Valid This Morning

Seven days ago I posted the 168-h 500 mb forecasts from the operational GFS and ECMWF models, as per above. Both models forecast a significant 500 mb trough along the west coast and a large anticyclone over the central U.S. Below is the NAM 500 mb analysis for 1200 UTC 2 June - this morning's verifying analysis for the two long-range forecasts.

My assessment is that both forecasts verified reasonably well, given that the forecasts were for seven days out. The strength of the anticyclone was overdone a bit by both models and both had the west trough and the anticyclone located too far west. Subjective evaluation, by me, gives a bit of an edge to ECMWF for this particular comparison. Neither model picked up the weak S/W and vorticity maxima within the anticyclone and strung out from Kansas/Nebraska eastward. This is, of course, where the most signficiant early morning thunderstorm activity was occurring - as per 09 UTC regional radar, shown below.

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