Thursday, June 16, 2011

Two MCSs Over Central Plains This Morning

Two early morning MCSs developed over the Plains this morning. Shown above are visible and IR satellite images and a radar chart, all around 1300 UTC. I checked the 0000 and 0600 UTC NAM forecasts and, while the model hinted at the northern MCS, it really did not get significant convection going until around 1800 UTC. The afternoon and evening FDs from a couple of offices also hinted at the MCS possiblity. But, my perception is that forecasting these early morning systems can sometimes be nearly as difficult as it was back in the late 1960s.

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