Sunday, June 05, 2011

First Eastern Pacific TS of The Season?

The NHC has declared that there is a high probability of a TD or TS forming  in the eastern Pacific during the next couple of days (see their outlook map above). It appears that a fairly robust low is already spinning away in this area, if the visible loop is examined. The circulation appears to be centered near 11.0 degrees N and 97.5 degrees W. So we may be well on our way to the first tropical storm of the season.
I noted that at 2 pm this afternoon (Sunday, 5 June) Hermosilla, Mexico, reported 111F with a dewpoint of 30F. Yesterday's high here in Tucson was 103F at the airport - hottest day of the season so far.
The global forecast models persist in keeping a 500 mb trough along, or just inland from, the west coast through 240 hours, i.e., through the middle of the month.

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