Tuesday, June 21, 2011

How Quickly Forecasts Can Change!

This morning's forecast from NHC was discussed in the post below, since the forecast track and intensity was favorable for triggering at least a shallow moisture surge up the GoC. However, all the deep convection associated with Beatriz has decayed (see top image); the NHC has downgraded the once-hurricane to a Tropical Storm; relocated it substantially to the south and west; and now forecasts a westward track (see bottom image) with rapid dissipation. Thus, my post below has become mostly irrelevant quite quickly. It does appear that winds over the GoC are southerly at 10 to 20kts and that PW has increased over the southern half of the GoC. However, a significant push of low-level moisture into the lower Colorado River Basin is not very likely, given the strange behavior of the storm. So it goes.

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