Sunday, June 26, 2011

Look At This Morning's U of A WRF Run

The U of A Atmo's high-resolution WRF model, run at midnight last night (Saturday night June 25th), forecasts are interesting this morning. This is the first summer run that forecasts weak convective echoes as far north and west as eastern Pima County - thus, I thought they were worth showing. All of the images above are WRF forecasts valid at 6 pm MST on Tuesday, 28 June 2011. The PW forecast (top) indicates a general evening push of higher PW into southern Arizona, with a nice blob of higher values moving across the Tucson area - values reach to just over an inch. Composite radar forecasted at the same time (middle) indicates weak convective echos near the Catalinas and Rincons, with some thunderstorms off to the northeast over higher elevations. The forecast of total accumulated rainfal at 6 pm MST on Tuesday (bottom image) shows a forecast of light sprinkles at the higher elevations of southeastern Arizona - so, the model essentially  forecasts high-based convection and virga sprinkles - some possiblity of CG lighting is also indicated, especially off to the northeast of Tucson.

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